marciolsf
Member
Well yeah, but it's not easy to explain the results in a way that would be uncontroversial. I was planning to make this a 200th page review post, but what the hell...
118 Users have attempted to fix 199 consoles on this thread. The actual number is probably higher, but they have only provided details on, claimed success on, or specifically mentioned 199.
166/199 consoles were Tantalum replacements (83%)
- 26% (52/199) didn't say what model they had. One user said multiple of his consoles were backwards compatible but didn't specify the model. I had to put those in the "didn't say" category.
- 27% (54/199) were COK-001 (A/B models).
- 21% (41/199) were COK-002 or COK-002W (C/E Models).
- 7% (14/199) were SEM-001 (G models).
- 5% (10/199) were VER-001 (L, M, P, & Q Models).
- 4.5% (9/199) were DIA-001 (H Models).
- 4.5% (9/199) were DIA-002 (J & K Models).
- 2.5% (5/199) were SUR-001 (21xx Models).
- 2% (4/199) were DYN-001 (20xx Models).
- 0.5% (1/199) was KTE-001 (30xx Model).
Inconclusive means the user claimed positive results, but never reported back to tell us if it kept working or not. Or after the replacement there were artifacts indicating BGA defects, false positives, or instability not worthy of calling it a positive result. Or the console was last reported working, but ~2 weeks have not yet past since the last update.
- 19% (31/166) were confirmed to work at least 2 weeks later.
- 55% (92/166) were last confirmed a YLOD.
- 25% (42/166) I marked down "inconclusive.
Before you argue marking consoles inconclusive is unfair, let me respond. Perhaps I should take everyone at their word when they say, "I did the tantalum thing and it worked!!!" Even if I did the inconclusive results + confirmed Positive results = 44% of the consoles tested. That represents all the consoles that claimed positive results, regardless of other factors. It assumes none of them will fail in the next few days when the board relaxes from the hot air they used to install the tantalums (false positives). It assumes that every positive case lasted, was thoroughly tested, and never got sold on ebay to someone who doesn't know about this thread. It assumes we got an update up on the progress of every console. Even if you accept all that absurdity…45% success rate still means the tantalum mod DOES NOT FIX the majority of consoles.
Now let's get real! Many of the inconclusive consoles probably did eventually fail, but we never got an update. Maybe it was sold. Maybe it got stored after "fixing." Another thing to note is the effect of "adulation." Users will comment on this thread simply to post positive results and thank the OP (hero worship). It's a type of response bias and will have a large influence on the statistics above, driving the percentage of success up.
On the other hand, many of the people attempting this mod are doing so with inadequate skills and equipment. Many use low quality capacitors, have cold solder joints, use too thin a gauge of bridging wires, don't troubleshoot the board before starting, and so on. These factors reduce the likelihood of a successful outcome. However, since anecdotal evidence from technitions like @squeept, @botakompong, @vyktormvmpay25 suggest that reballing is necessary in 90% of cases and that the tokins are very rare. These people have the equipment and skill to properly troubleshoot the console before attempting a fix. So if 90% are BGA defects or RSX issues, then any unskilled work in the area near the processors has a high chance of causing a BGA false positive. This means if you take any YLOD console and try the tantalum fix, it probably will work temporarily. But you won't know if it's a false positive or true fix until the console YLOD again. That could be in a few minutes, days, weeks. Generally if it lasts longer than a month with frequent use, it may have worked. But a false positive could revert in mont to a year too. It just depend on a lot of factors. This is why I always recommend you start with the SYSCON error codes first then proceed to troubleshooting. Then you know what was wrong to begin with and you're not chasing gremlins for months to come.
It's impossible to quantify the variables. However, ask yourself this, if 90% of YLOD consoles could be fixed with tantalum capacitors, is a 45% reported success rate reasonable? I think you could argue this either way. And that's why these results aren't very useful. I have been able to identify a number of myths...
Myths:
You see the problem is there's a response bias when the "culture" of the forum is pro tantalum fix vs reballing. Since the thread has shifted back and forth, this creates a situation where people only report success or failure to confirm the prevailing viewpoint. Our brains fail to equally weigh opinions that do not conform to what we expect or believe with those that do. This leads to a bias favoring expected results. "I reject your reality and substitute mu own!" Psychologists and neuroscientists call this "confidence bias." You might know it as seeing the world through rose tinted glasses, wishful thinking, living in our own reality. Basically, the fact people want so badly for this to fix their console, is why they tend to see the console's behavior in a way that tells them they should replace the NEC/TOKINs. Once they find evidence that can be explained by their expectation (pet theory), they see that as confirmation, Instead of evaluating how well the evidence fits the competing theory also.
- Tokins are prone to fail.
- On Page 168 I wrote "A Retrospective Analysis of the NEC/TOKIN Proadlizer" in which I explored this topic in depth. I couldn't find any support for the idea that the NEC/TOKIN proadlizers are a defective technology. One would think that there would be ample information online about them, yet there is very little. No recalls, no technical analyses showing them to fail prematurely, nothing but the product information and the rumor. Either the internet was cleansed of the negative information, or it's a baseless claim.
- SONY Replaced the NEC/TOKINs with Tantalum capacitors, so they must have been defective. That could be true. Or, they weren't needed. The slim models began moving to tantalum starting with the CELL side on the DYN-001 in 25xx models. It's important to note that model has HF bypass caps populated on the motherboard and 7x470uF TaPol caps. The HF MLCC are 30-40x 0.1uF on data lines connecting the RSX and IO, and 24x 10uF near the TaPol and on the CPU substrate itself (which previous models lack).That coincided with the move to a smaller processor manufacturing process. The Cell_BE CPU was reduced to 65nm starting with the SEM-001 (G models). G models still had the 90nm RSX GPU and both have NEC/TOKINs, but the CPU's MLCC bypass capacitors are unpopulated. This may mean that the lower power draw or smaller mnf. Process reduced the need for them. Or they were deemed unnecessary and removed as a cost saving measure. Also, the number of switching DC/DC VRM was reduced from 3 to 2 on the RSX. That changes it's RLC characteristics and suggests that the only reason for the extra one was for PS2 HWBC. Also the APS231 power supply was more efficient since it didn't need to operate as close to its maximum output power (285W). Therefore, G models should be more reliable. If they are not, then maybe the tokins are failing.
- Heat Gun Trick (this does not tell you anything. If it does work, it more likely means you have a BGA defect requiring a reball/reflow to fix)
- Tantalum capacitors are the "real" Fix for the YLOD. Reballing isn't necessary in the majority of cases. Total myth.
- Electrolytic capacitors work (they don't. If they allow the console to boot, their high esr will burn them out soon afterwards. It's not a long term solution.)
- Instant YLOD always = Short (a shor can cause an instant YLOD, but not all instant YLOD's are due to shorts)
- A Random/Intermittent YLOD that occurs in games at certain points MUST be Bad NEC/TOKINs.
- This one "seems" particularly plausible, but again all or nothing statments like this are never true. While this is the use case for the tantalum mod and it increase the likely hood that the tantalum mod would fix your YLOD, you should still get the SYSCON error codes to rule out a 3034 that would indicate a BGA defect. And if there are 1002 errors to indicate the tokins, then you can try this mod with fair certainty it is appropriate.
The result of confidence and confirmation biases on this thread have artificially inflated the number of successful posts. People don't always respond unbiased. And I have to sift through the thread and infer the truith from what little details I'm given. The problem is that any work being done next to the RSX or CPU is likely to cause a false positive simply due to proximity. That and mounting pressures are different when you put the thermal paste and springs back on. There are too many variables to make it possible to decide. So I had to take them at their word most of the time. And because I can't separate the BGA false positives from actual success, the numbers aren't very useful.
...But yes. Technically speaking, 45% of the people who replaced their NEC/TOKINs with Tantalum caps "reported immediate sucess." That number doesn't include false positives that later failed. So at best, this mod is unlikely to fix you YLOD. More likely, it's very unlikely to fix your YLOD. The only way to know for sure is to get the SYSCON error codes.
These are fascinating results, and the 45% "success rate" (if you can call it that) is better than I expected. Great work!!
I still don't think the mod is worth the trouble, however, for the majority of the users out there. Here's a few reasons, as everyone who has tried this has learned :
• The mod is difficult to get right
• Adequate parts are not cheap
• Proper tooling is expensive (good iron, good heat gun aka not harbor freight, fancy scope)
All of the above, for 45% chance it'll work, at best. These are not very good odds, specially for the amount of work required and money spent.