Yes, the console won't blink those leds when it's displaying an error message like, "your ps3 was not turned off properly the last time it was shut down." It will restart, rebuild the database, then once it gets back into the menu it'll access the drive, wifi, etc.
Also, I don't understand what you mean by, "AV is all I can try today." Did you plug in an AV cord or not? Do you get analog video? You should, unless the HDMI must be populated to get any video out at all.
- How long ago did you perform the tantalum mod?
- How much time do you estimate you've spent playing it since?
It would really help us get a sense of how often the NEC/TOKINs go bad. No one seems to ever answer these crucial questions.